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Finding Good Horse Racing Bets With Simple Math and Practice

For most people, handicapping horse racing and finding winners seems like a mystery. They understand the basic concepts of handicapping and can read the program, yet after the race is over they still don’t understand how some people chose the winner. It seems to be more a matter of luck than anything else. Therefore, many people give up on handicap and just start playing lucky numbers or worse than that, they give up horse racing and buy lottery tickets or a roll of quarters for slot machines.

Determining if a horse is a good bet is not that difficult and is the key to making a profit. That’s the whole game in a nutshell – finding a good bet. It’s not always about which horse will win because, quite frankly, no one really knows or can say for sure. There are no lead pipe straps in horse racing.

If you want to make a profit you will have to work very hard, and as I said before there are no lead pipe straps so nothing is guaranteed. You can still lose even if you do everything right. That’s life. On the other hand, your chances of making money betting on horse racing are better if you understand these fundamental numbers and how to apply them.

First, while you’re looking for a winner, let me ask you this: “What does a winner look like?” This is not a trick question. I know it had a head and a tail and a leg on each corner, but what does it look like on paper?

If you save your old race schedules, which I hope you will, you should be able to go through them and see which horses won and what they had in common for each distance, type of race and surface they ran on ran. For example, how many were in the top three for speed in the last race in a 6 furlong sprint for older horses? If you don’t know this, how can you handicap a race and use speed numbers effectively?

If you know this and all the other stats that come with races, then you can know what the odds are of a particular horse winning. I call it the probability number, but you can call it whatever you want. Once you have some probability numbers for the horses in a race, you can determine the probability of each winning. Therefore, you will know what a winner should look like. The more probability, the more chances of winning. The more horses in the race, the harder it is to win. So a short field and a high probability number should equal a low cost favorite, but if you know the probability you can compare the odds of winning at the current odds.

For example, you think a horse has a one in three chance of winning in a race based on speed, class, recent form, and jockey. The horse is at 2-1. Is it a good bet? It will pay $3 for every $1 wagered on it, but these horses only win once in three races, so you will get $3 back for every $3 you wager. In other words, it’s a balancing bet and no one has ever gotten rich on these. In fact, in the long run, you won’t even earn enough to buy a hot dog.

This simple equation, probability versus odds, is how you know if a horse is a good bet. It’s devilishly simple, although knowing the probability numbers requires research and that means gleaning those facts from old programs or online results files. This is where practice comes in.

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