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## Professional Horse Racing Tips – How To Win Betting On Horses

**You must have value**

Value means betting on horses that will show long-term profit.

It’s like buying £20 tickets for £15.

**How do you know when you have value?**

Here we are going to discuss how professional gamers do it. Then, in later articles, I’ll show you some easy “tricks” or shortcuts. There are 3 basic steps.

**Step 1: Probability of winning**

Estimate the winning probability of each horse in a race or, if you’re short on time, just the horse you’re considering betting on.

**Step 2: prize value**

Convert this probability into a price. The “real price” or “value price”.

**Step 3: Compare value to odds**

Compare the odds available to the actual price you calculated. Only bet on the horse(s) when the price offered is GREATER than the price you have calculated.

**How much can I earn?**

For example if you make a horse a true 9/1 chance i.e. it will win 10% of its races… but if you can bet at 14/1, then you will make 50% profit on your turnover. Like buying £20 tickets for £13.33.

However if you bet the same horse at 6/1 you would lose 30%. Like paying £26 for £20 notes!

Winning 50% on turnover is equivalent to every £100 bet you hit putting £50 in your pocket in the long run. If you could find a horse a day like this you would be making £50 a day or £15,600 a year if you take Sundays like me! It is also tax free. You would need to be paid around £30,000 in a real job to get the same take home pay.

**How to estimate the odds of winning the horse(s)**

I’m happy to bet 9/1 odds at 14/1 but in reality you need to have the bank, the balls and the emotional stability to be able to withstand 9 losers for every winner.

Currently my focus tends to be front of the market because I have been banned by every bookmaker I have bet with and now provide information to a small group of regular customers. A lot of my clients are friends and I know they don’t want to suffer long losing runs like that, so I focus on horses with a higher probability of winning. I imagine you look a lot like them, so I suggest you do the same, especially at first.

I recommend that you start by calculating the odds of winning only the horses you want to bet on rather than doing every horse in every race like I do.

First imagine that the race is run 10 times.

Realistically estimate how many times your horse will win.

The general rule of rating a horse’s ability is to convert all of the horse’s performance to a numerical figure. The bigger the number, the better. We call this a rating.

The difference between the numbers of two horses is called the advantage in pounds. If a horse has a 10 pound advantage, I would estimate it wins 4 times out of 10 or 40%. If he has a 20 pound advantage, I estimate 6 out of 10 or 60% wins. You can use a similar extrapolation

A low-cost solution is to use audience figures published in newspapers, subscribe to an audience service, or better yet, produce your own. But it can take a long time. I spend around £50,000 a year getting figures and forms analysis because I need the best information possible and to save time.

**How to Convert Winning Probability to a Valuable Prize**

To convert odds to prizes, subtract the chance of winning (WC) from 100% to get the chance of losing (LC)

Suppose you estimate that the horse wins 4 out of 10 races. Its chances of winning are 40%.

So WC = 40%

and loss of chance, LC = 100% – 40% = 60%

Then divide the chance of losing (LC) by the chance of winning (WC)

i.e. LC/WC

or 60/40 = 6/4

**Value in action and why do you win?**

Take the example above of a horse that wins 40% of its races. It is true that the price is 6/4.

Bet it at 2/1 and you win 20% or £200 on 10 bets at £100 each.

here is the math

Out of 10 races, you win 4 and lose 6.

Every time you win, you win £200 (£100 at 2/1)

You win 4 times so your gross win is £800.

Every time you lose, you lose £100 (the bet)

You lose 6 times so your gross loss is £600.

Your overall profit is £800 – £600 = £200.

So on average you earn £200 every 10 rides or £20 per ride or 20%

**What happens if you bet under the true price or value?**

But if you bet that horse for less than its value price, you will turn your profit into a loss.

Suppose you bet it at evens.

You still win 4 races. But instead of gross winnings of £800 (4 x £200) you now only win £400 (4 x £100)

You still lose 6 races and the gross loss is the same 6x £100 = £600

Net loss = +£400 Minus £600 = loss of £200

**Summary**

To be a successful professional gambler, you must have value when betting.

This means betting only when the odds or price offered to you is greater than the odds of winning the bet. We talked about horses here because that’s my area of expertise. But this principle is absolutely fundamental to any successful game.

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