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Blinded Rationality
In the journey of life, individuals often find themselves at a point from which they must choose one path out of many paths available to them. Once they choose a particular path, the other paths are automatically closed and will never be available to them in their lifetime. Individuals think that their chosen path is better than other paths and begin to believe that it is the right path for them. However, in reality, there is a chance that one of the other paths could have been better. The irony is that the other path cannot be seen or experienced unless it is chosen. This other path can only be visualized or imagined and individuals visualize the other path as less favorable than the chosen path. I call this situation “blind rationality” because their choice is rational but blinded by the limitation explained above.
Understanding this concept is important because we as individuals, organization or institution make decisions for ourselves or for a group or for the public in order to achieve a certain goal. Even the chosen path has inherent problems and opportunities. Each path chosen has several paths and each path leads us to different destinations. We reach different destinations depending on how we deal with our problems and our opportunities. For example, what might have been the state of the US economy if they had chosen an “X” for president instead of President Trump? What might have been the state of the economies of other countries or regions? It could have been better or worse, but we could never see that. The world under “X” would have been different with its inherent problems and opportunities. These problems and opportunities could have been handled with different political decisions. Therefore, it could have led us to a different destination, a destination that can only be imagined or visualized. Nobody can prove it. It can better be only in our mind or in a paper.
Another example of setting is the Indian stock market. India’s growth rate was around 8% from 2014 to 2016. Since then, it has never seen the previous level although it is growing at or above the Hindu growth rate. However, the Indian stock market recently hit its all-time high. The stock market community was jubilant and celebrated the achievement. Skeptics have wondered in the media why the stock market is rising when India has been recording a lower growth rate over the past 2 years. Let’s see the BSE Sensex of 2014-2020. The highest Sensex numbers from 2014 to 2020 are 27739, 28044, 27714, 32683, 37128, 38460 and 40478 respectively. In the first 3 years the index did not increase. It stagnated although India recorded an 8% growth rate. The Sensex grew by more than 15% while India’s growth rate was less than 8%. The following year, the Sensex grew again by around 15% although India recorded a lower growth rate than the previous year. Over the past 2 years, the Sensex has recorded less than 5% although the Indian economy has recorded a growth rate of over 5%. The recent peak was actually late. If we do a bit of math by multiplying 27739 by the growth rate of India during the said period, we almost reach the level of 40000. This peak is normal considering India’s growth rate. However, people look at this number differently. Some think it’s irrational exuberance. Others think that the Sensex should have reached 45,000 if the growth rate for the last 3 years had been around 8% or more. What is real is 40000 because of our chosen path. The 45000 or 50000 is only in our mind or on paper because other paths are closed because a path was chosen with rational thought. However, 45000 or 50000 was not improbable. We just can’t prove that because of human limitation. We cannot see different worlds simultaneously.
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